Sentencing: Why Outcomes Can Be Unpredictable, Even with the Best Advocacy
Sentencing is often the most critical day of a person’s life. It’s the culmination of a criminal case and the point at which a judge decides the fate of a defendant. As a criminal defense attorney, I know how important it is to prepare thoroughly and advocate strongly on behalf of my clients. However, even the best-prepared cases can result in surprising and disappointing outcomes.
Having recently gone through cases where the sentencing outcome was far harsher than expected, I know how challenging it is to prepare clients for the full range of possibilities. Even when the defense presents comprehensive mitigation, compelling character letters, and evidence of rehabilitation, there are no guarantees about how a judge will interpret the facts and apply the law.
In this post, I’ll share practical advice on how to prepare for sentencing, what to expect, why unexpected outcomes happen, and how to move forward even when the result seems unfair.
The Reality of Sentencing: Human Decisions in a Legal Framework
Judges are human beings, and sentencing decisions reflect both legal principles and personal interpretations. Despite the rigorous standards that guide sentencing, there is an inherently subjective element to how judges view the facts of a case. A decision that may seem shocking to a defendant and their family can be perfectly justified in the mind of the judge, even when the decision falls well within the lawful range.
A colleague once told me that if he could predict what would happen in court 100% of the time, he’d be rich, and every defendant would hire him. That’s the thing about sentencing—it’s not a math problem with a single correct answer. It’s a complex human process, influenced by both objective facts and subjective perceptions.
One of the most insightful studies I’ve read is from Atomic Habits by James Clear, which discusses how judges’ moods can impact sentencing decisions. The study found that judges were significantly more likely to grant parole at the start of the day or after a meal break compared to just before lunch or at the end of the day.
This demonstrates that factors unrelated to the crime or the defendant can still influence outcomes. In the same way, small details or even the way a judge perceives a particular aspect of the case can unexpectedly shift the sentence.
What the Defense Attorney Can and Cannot Control
One of the most challenging aspects of criminal defense is balancing what we can control with what we can't. Clients and their families often assume that a well-prepared defense guarantees a favorable outcome. Unfortunately, that’s not how it works. Understanding what your defense attorney can and cannot influence is essential for managing expectations during the sentencing process.
What We Can Control:
Presentation of Mitigation: We gather and present evidence of good character, rehabilitation efforts, and personal history to show why leniency is appropriate.
Sentencing Memorandum: We craft persuasive, well-reasoned written arguments to frame your actions in context and advocate for a fair sentence.
Character Letters and Statements: We help gather statements from people who know you best, emphasizing your positive qualities and genuine remorse.
Communication with the Court: We clearly and respectfully present your case to the judge, emphasizing the most compelling reasons for leniency.
Advocacy During Sentencing: We make strong, persuasive arguments on your behalf, emphasizing rehabilitation and remorse while addressing any aggravating factors.
What We Can’t Control:
Judicial Discretion: Judges have the final say and are not bound to follow the defense’s recommendations, no matter how compelling they may be.
Victim Impact Statements: Victims have a right to speak at sentencing, and their statements can be highly emotional or unexpected.
Prosecutor’s Position: While we can try to negotiate or persuade the prosecutor to recommend leniency, we cannot control their stance at sentencing.
Judicial Interpretation of Facts: Judges interpret evidence differently, and sometimes their perspective is shaped by their personal experiences or preconceived notions.
Public Perception and Media Influence: High-profile cases or community sentiment can sometimes influence how judges perceive a case.
How to Help Your Defense Attorney
Your defense attorney is your advocate, but you also play a crucial role in preparing for sentencing. Here are a few ways you can actively support your attorney's efforts and maximize your chances of a positive outcome:
1. Be Honest and Transparent:
Your attorney needs accurate information to build a strong defense. Be upfront about your background, prior incidents, and any personal struggles that could impact your case.
2. Follow Your Attorney’s Advice:
Trust that your lawyer has your best interests in mind. If you have concerns, express them openly—but give your attorney the opportunity to explain their reasoning.
3. Take Responsibility:
Judges respond more favorably to defendants who demonstrate personal accountability. If your attorney advises you to express remorse or take responsibility, trust their guidance.
4. Document Your Efforts:
Provide your attorney with certificates, records, and proof of rehabilitation. Judges appreciate seeing tangible efforts to change.
5. Be Proactive in Rehabilitation:
Whether it’s counseling, community service, or finding stable employment, start making changes before sentencing. Proactivity shows genuine intent to improve.
The Role of a Defense Attorney at Sentencing
The defense attorney’s primary role during sentencing is to advocate on your behalf, presenting mitigation, character evidence, and compelling arguments for leniency.
Crafting a Sentencing Strategy:
A good defense attorney develops a strategy that aligns with both the facts of the case and the judge’s typical approach to sentencing. This includes presenting evidence of rehabilitation, highlighting personal challenges, and arguing for fairness and proportionality.
Communicating Effectively with the Court:
The defense attorney will prepare a written sentencing memorandum and make oral arguments to persuade the judge. This includes addressing aggravating factors head-on and countering any unexpected issues that arise during the hearing.
Managing Client Expectations:
An effective attorney also prepares the client for the possibility of an unexpected outcome. Even with strong mitigation and advocacy, judges sometimes issue sentences that seem disproportionate or harsh.
Moving Forward After an Unexpected Outcome
When sentencing doesn’t go as planned, it can feel devastating for both the client and the attorney. In my practice, I’ve spent countless hours reflecting on why a case didn’t go the way I expected, even after presenting thorough and well-reasoned arguments.
Sometimes, the reasons a judge provides for their decision can feel arbitrary or unfair. It’s easy to feel like something went wrong or that someone is to blame. The truth is that sentencing is a human process, and even with the best preparation and advocacy, outlier sentences happen. Judges may focus on details that seem minor to others or interpret evidence differently than expected.
When faced with an unexpected outcome, it’s important to consider your options calmly and thoughtfully. Consulting with another attorney to explore a Petition for Post-Conviction Relief (PCR) or other potential remedies is wise. Many attorneys offer free consultations and can give you a fresh perspective on your case.
Final Thoughts: Learning from Difficult Sentencing Outcomes
The reality of criminal defense is that not every case ends the way we hope. Even with years of experience and countless hours of preparation, judges sometimes make decisions that feel deeply unfair. As a defense attorney, it’s my job to counsel clients on the full range of possible outcomes and to be transparent about the inherent unpredictability of sentencing.
If you or a loved one are facing sentencing or dealing with the aftermath of an unexpected outcome, reach out to discuss your options. While we can’t always predict what will happen, we can work together to address challenges and move forward.
Amanda Bynum, Tucson Criminal Defense Attorney
AJB Law Firm - DUI and Criminal Defense
Providing strong advocacy and practical guidance for those facing criminal charges in Pima County and beyond.
