Why Sentencing Outcomes Can Be Unexpected—Even with the Best Advocacy
As a criminal defense attorney, one of the most challenging parts of my job is managing clients' expectations at sentencing. No matter how thoroughly we prepare, no matter how strong our arguments, and no matter how well we present the mitigating factors, sentencing can still result in outcomes that feel harsh or unfair. It’s one of the most difficult aspects of practicing law—doing everything possible to advocate for a fair and proportionate sentence, only to have a judge go in an entirely different direction.
The Unpredictable Nature of Sentencing
Sentencing is inherently unpredictable because it is a human process. Judges are tasked with weighing a multitude of factors, including the nature of the offense, the defendant’s criminal history (or lack thereof), victim impact statements, and mitigating circumstances like trauma, remorse, and rehabilitation. Even when we believe we’ve presented the most compelling arguments and mitigation, we cannot control how a judge will interpret and weigh the evidence.
I often tell clients that sentencing is not a mathematical equation—it’s not as simple as adding up points and coming to a predetermined result. Judges bring their own values, experiences, and perspectives to the bench. They are influenced not only by legal guidelines but also by personal philosophy and life experiences.
A colleague of mine once said, "If I could predict what was going to happen 100% of the time, I'd be rich—everyone would hire me. But that's not how it works." That statement couldn’t be more accurate. Even the most seasoned defense attorneys who have spent decades advocating for clients still encounter cases where the judge’s decision is completely unexpected.
Factors That Can Influence Sentencing
In criminal defense, there are a few key factors that can lead to unexpected sentencing outcomes:
Judicial Philosophy and Discretion
Each judge has their own philosophy about punishment and rehabilitation. Some are lenient and open to second chances, while others take a more punitive approach. Even within the same courthouse, you might find judges whose sentencing practices vary widely.
Judges are also human beings. Their own life experiences, personal values, and professional backgrounds shape how they interpret the facts of a case. Some judges may place a higher emphasis on deterrence and public safety, while others prioritize rehabilitation and accountability.
2. Decision Fatigue and Timing
Interestingly, research shows that judges are not immune to cognitive biases and decision fatigue. One of the most well-known studies discussed in Atomic Habits by James Clear looked at parole decisions made throughout the day. The study found that judges were more likely to grant parole earlier in the day, with the likelihood of parole dropping significantly as the day wore on—a phenomenon attributed to mental fatigue and a tendency to stick to the "default" decision of denying parole.
While this study focused on parole boards rather than criminal sentencing, it highlights the human aspect of decision-making. Judges may be influenced by how tired they are, how many cases they’ve heard that day, or even their mood and stress levels.
3. Unexpected Factors That Influence Sentencing
Sometimes, the smallest details can unexpectedly influence a judge’s decision. I once had a case where the judge focused almost entirely on a seemingly minor detail that I hadn’t anticipated would matter so much. It wasn’t the crime itself or even the client’s remorse that swayed the judge—it was a small factual point that struck a nerve.
Sometimes, judges may focus on unexpected aspects of a case that they find particularly concerning. It could be the perceived intent or motivation behind an action, the duration of time between an initial conflict and the offense, or even seemingly minor details that take on disproportionate significance in the judge’s mind. These kinds of interpretations can take even the most prepared defense attorney by surprise, as they often hinge on the judge’s personal perspective rather than purely on the legal merits of the case.
4. The Power of Victim Impact Statements
Victim impact statements can also have a profound influence on sentencing. In many cases, judges give significant weight to the victim’s perspective and the emotional impact of the crime. Even when defense counsel submits compelling mitigation and character letters, a powerful statement from the victim can sway the court toward a harsher sentence.
The Challenges of Managing Client Expectations
One of the hardest conversations to have with clients is about the reality of unpredictable outcomes. I always strive to be honest and transparent with my clients about the best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios. I make sure they understand that, despite our best efforts, there are no guarantees.
Many clients and their families understandably feel angry and disappointed when the sentence is harsher than expected. It’s natural to want to point fingers or find fault when the outcome doesn’t match their hopes. Sometimes they feel that if only something different had been said or done, the result would have changed.
But the reality is that no one can guarantee a specific outcome. As defense attorneys, we can prepare meticulously, craft persuasive arguments, and advocate passionately, but at the end of the day, the decision lies entirely with the judge.
Reflecting on Unexpected Outcomes
When an outcome feels shockingly harsh, it’s not just the client who feels let down. I, too, feel frustrated and disheartened when I know I did everything I could, yet the judge went in an unexpected direction. There’s a sense of powerlessness in those moments—knowing that despite all the time, effort, and advocacy, the judge made a decision that I simply could not predict.
I take these cases personally because I genuinely care about my clients and their futures. It’s hard not to second-guess myself and wonder if I could have done more, said something differently, or approached the argument in another way. But the reality is that I can’t change the fact that judges are human, and sentencing is inherently subjective.
Moving Forward After a Disappointing Sentence
If you or a loved one is facing a sentencing outcome that feels harsh or unfair, it’s important to focus on the next stepsrather than dwelling on the past. Options like motions to modify sentences, petitions for post-conviction relief (PCR), or even appeals may be available, depending on the circumstances.
It’s also essential to focus on rehabilitation and compliance, demonstrating that you’re committed to moving forward responsibly. Judges often appreciate seeing progress and positive changes when considering modifications or early termination of probation.
Final Thoughts
Sentencing is not always predictable, even when you have the best attorney and the most thorough preparation. It’s a painful reality of the criminal justice system that even strong advocacy does not guarantee a favorable outcome. Understanding this reality is crucial for anyone navigating the system or supporting a loved one through it.
As a Tucson Criminal Defense Attorney, I remain committed to fighting for my clients and preparing them for all potential outcomes. But I also believe in being honest about the challenges and uncertainties that come with the sentencing process. Despite our best efforts, the justice system is ultimately influenced by human judgment, and that means outcomes can be unpredictable and, at times, heartbreaking.
If you have questions about sentencing, post-conviction relief, or other aspects of your case, feel free to reach out to Tucson Criminal Defense Attorney Amanda Bynum at AJB Law Firm. I’m here to help you navigate this complex and often unpredictable process.
